Bell curve

[Chabi]

Do you have any estimation about the influence on the winrate of the "luckyness/unluckyness" on the "Overall Luck Bell Curve"? Assuming that there is a large sample.

Here is my graph this year, 273k hands https://gyazo.com/11234210af63dd4e0a76874dc3deae6b

Thank you.

[kraada]

That's hard to say exactly - if you hit those hands you probably win those pots but whether you win any more after you make your hand is a tough question to answer. The most you can say for sure is if you hit all of your draws you'll have a higher winrate. You can filter to missed draws via the filters system and see how much those cost you -- but you'll never hit all of your draws so you shouldn't assume that all of those losses would convert fully to winnings.

[Chabi]

Ok, kraada, thank you for your response. I know what you mean, but... have you ever seen that on a 200k+ hands DB? Is it more or less std or I'm running so bad? Four years using PT4 and I've never seen anything like that.

Regards.

[kraada]

The way the probability works out if you had a sample of databases even if they were all very large, for each point on the graph you could expect 1 database in 20 to have a point in either the bottom third or top third (Very Unlucky or Very Lucky). Also keep in mind that with 200,000 hands you're going to have far fewer chances to complete a draw on the turn or river. If you have a VPIP of 20 that already reduces it to 40,000 hands you put in money -- and not all of those see a flop, and not all of those flop a draw. Your actual sample of draws is going to be much lower than 200,000.